Arguably the two best and most bankable teams from the home and away season will collide on Saturday for the 2026 AFL Grand Final, with minor premiers Fremantle taking on the Brisbane Lions at the MCG.
The Dockers have the opportunity to win their first ever AFL flag after entering the competition in 1995.
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Meanwhile, the Lions could become the first club of the 21st century to claim two separate premiership three-peats after Leigh Matthews’ Brisbane claimed the 2001, 2002 and 2003 flags.
We’ve surveyed an array of Fox Footy pundits ahead of the game — and when it comes to tipping the winner, the Dockers have the slight edge.
Of the 28 pundits surveyed, 15 tipped Fremantle to win the flag.
Multiple commentators stuck fat with the Dockers, noting they’d been the best team all year. Dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna said Justin Longmuir’s men would “save their best until last”.
Melbourne legend Garry Lyon also tipped Fremantle, doubling down on his belief in Champion Data’s ‘Premiership Window’.
Dockers tune up for the Grand Final | 03:32
The graphic, which has proven to be a reliable and accurate indicator of which clubs can win the premiership in any given year, maps out the offensive and defensive profiles of any team in the competition. Teams who rank in the top six for both points for and points against are considered to be in the premiership window. That’s because 18 of the past 20 AFL premiers have been in the green zone in their respective seasons.
This season, the Dockers are in the window … but the in-form Lions aren’t due to their defensive profile.
“I’m hanging onto the vestiges of the revered Premiership Window,” Lyon told foxfooty.com.au with a smile.
“It was introduced via On The Couch under my watch and I’ve been shouting it from the rooftops since.
“The Dockers are the last chance to preserve the near 100 per cent strike rate, so I’ll put my faith in the window one last time.”
But, interestingly, the 15 experts who tipped Fremantle to win were by an average margin of just under two goals. Meanwhile, the average winning margin for the Lions tipsters was 27 points, indicating the Brisbane backers generally expect a more decisive victory.
Freo fever grips Perth and Melbourne | 02:54
CODE Sports and Fox Footy reporter Jon Ralph picked the Lions by 22 points, telling foxfooty.com.au: “Too many match-winners, none of the stage fright that has hampered the Dockers.”
The Norm Smith Medal tips are remarkably spread.
Dockers game-breaker Hayden Young, who starred in the preliminary final win over Sydney with one goal from 28 disposals and seven tackles, had the most tips with five.
Five players are tied on three, including Brisbane star Will Ashcroft, who would join Richmond legend Dustin Martin as the AFL’s only three-time Norm Smith Medallist if he was adjudged best on ground on Saturday.
Fremantle has been widely tipped to kick the first goal of the game, with key forward Josh Treacy accumulating the most votes so far.
From 6pm on Saturday, fans will be able re-live the Grand Final with a full match replay commentated by Anthony Hudson, Dwayne Russell, Garry Lyon and Jason Dunstall.
The broadcast will feature Kayo Sports’ expert commentary team’s reactions recorded during the game, allowing viewers to experience the defining moments again alongside the immediate response from the commentary box.
Lions ‘shocked’ by Neale’s 1 game ban | 02:32
AFL GRAND FINAL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS 2026
Premiership winner
15 (of 28) — Fremantle
13 — Brisbane Lions
Norm Smith Medallist
5 — Hayden Young (Fremantle)
3 — Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions), Shai Bolton (Fremantle), Caleb Serong (Fremantle), Luke Jackson (Fremantle), Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)
2 — Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions), Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)
1 — Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions), Alex Pearce (Fremantle), Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions), Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker
5 — Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
4 — Shai Bolton (Fremantle), Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle), Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions), Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)
2 — Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions), Michael Frederick (Fremantle)
1 — Jye Amiss (Fremantle), Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions), Patrick Voss (Fremantle), Murphy Reid (Fremantle)
FOX FOOTY EXPERT PREDICTIONS
JOSH BARNES (Midweek Tackle/CODE Sports)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 21 points — “It seems neither team cares about defence, and if so, the Lions just have too many weapons for the Dockers to contain.”
Norm Smith Medal: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
JONATHAN BROWN (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 3 points — “The Lions will be able to contain Freo’s ‘Big Three’ up forward.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)
NICK DAL SANTO (Fox Footy analyst)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 34 points — “The Lions’ small forwards will get off the leash.”
Norm Smith Medal: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
BEN DIXON (Fox Footy analyst/First Crack)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 19 points — “Too aggressive with ball in hand.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)
WILL FAULKNER (foxfooty.com.au)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 33 points — “Through no fault of Fremantle’s, Brisbane has been there and done that, making them very tough to tip against. The familiarity of playing in an AFL Grand Final shouldn’t be understated, and I think we’ll see a close game to begin with before familiarity takes control.”
Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane)
First goalkicker: Michael Frederick (Fremantle)
CATHERINE HEALEY (foxfooty.com.au)
Premiers: Fremantle by 13 points — “The unicorn Luke Jackson will deliver another masterclass in a comeback victory.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hayden Young (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)
GERARD HEALY (Fox Footy analyst)
Premiers: Fremantle by 18 points — “I tipped them at the start of the year, and I’m not jumping off now.”
Norm Smith Medal: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)
ANTHONY HUDSON (Fox Footy commentator)
Premiers: Fremantle by 8 points — “I tipped them at the start of the year and will stick with them. The big upside is the players out of form … if they can lift.”
Norm Smith Medal: Alex Pearce (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle)
BRAD JOHNSON (Fox Footy analyst)
Premiers: Fremantle by 15 points — “The best team all year will get it done.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hayden Young (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
DREW JONES (Fox Sports News/AFL Tonight)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 24 points — “The Dockers have unfortunately peaked too early.”
Norm Smith Medal: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Murphy Reid (Fremantle)
JACK JOVANOVSKI (foxfooty.com.au)
Premiers: Fremantle by 3 points — “They’ve shown they can stifle the Lions’ offence, and then hurt them in transition.”
Norm Smith Medal: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
DAVID KING (Fox Footy analyst/First Crack)
Premiers: Fremantle by 2 points — “The Immortals. The Lions will have no answer for Luke Jackson.”
Norm Smith Medal: Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
MAX LAUGHTON (foxfooty.com.au)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 35 points — “The recent Grand Final trend continues with a back-and-forth contest for three quarters before the Lions kick away and enjoy 20 minutes of party time. Freo has been the better team all year but has fallen off from that high mark; plus you can’t tip against Brisbane in a game like this.”
Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle) — “Brisbane didn’t kick the first goal in 2024 or 2025, instead conceding one to an opposition small forward. Another trend continues.”
JORDAN LEWIS (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)
Premiers: Fremantle by 16 points — “The three tall forwards to take flight.”
Norm Smith Medal: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
KATH LOUGHNAN (Fox Footy host/Super Saturday Live)
Premiers: Fremantle by 18 points — “I’ve got to go with my heart!”
Norm Smith Medal: Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle)
GARRY LYON (Fox Footy analyst/AFL 360)
Premiers: Fremantle by 4 points — “I’m hanging onto the vestiges of the revered Premiership Window. It was introduced via On The Couch under my watch and I’ve been shouting it from the rooftops since. The Dockers are the last chance to preserve the near 100 per cent strike rate, so I’ll put my faith in the window one last time.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hayden Young (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Josh Treacy (Fremantle)
GLENN McFARLANE (CODE Sports/Midweek Tackle)
Premiers: Fremantle by 1 point — “It’s time … a history-making first flag for the Dockers in another September classic. The best team from the home-and-away season peaks at the right time on Grand Final day.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hayden Young (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)
CORBIN MIDDLEMAS (Fox Footy commentator/Midweek Tackle)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 10 points — “Grand Final experience will carry them past the Wharfies in a classic.”
Norm Smith Medal: Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
LEIGH MONTAGNA (Fox Footy commentator and analyst/First Crack)
Premiers: Fremantle by 17 points — “The best team all season will save their best until last.”
Norm Smith Medal: Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions)
CAMERON MOONEY (Fox Footy analyst/Bounce)
Premiers: Fremantle by 5 points — “It’s just their time.”
Norm Smith Medal: Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)
JON RALPH (CODE Sports/Midweek Tackle/On The Couch)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 22 points — “Too many match-winners, none of the stage fright that has hampered the Dockers.”
Norm Smith Medal: Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions)
JACK RIEWOLDT (Fox Footy analyst/On The Couch)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 35 points — “The MCG will suit the Lions again.”
Norm Smith Medal: Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions)
DWAYNE RUSSELL (Fox Footy commentator)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 15 points — “Premiership experience and Grand Final week familiarity will work in their favour.”
Norm Smith Medal: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
RUBY SCHLEICHER (Fox Footy analyst/AFL Tonight)
Premiers: Fremantle by 3 points — “I’m a lifelong Freo supporter who can’t bare to think of another Grand Final defeat let-down.”
Norm Smith Medal: Hayden Young (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
WILL SCHOFIELD (Fox Footy analyst/AFL Tonight)
Premiers: Fremantle by 23 points — “I still believe the Dockers’ best footy is better than Brisbane’s. Brisbane has a brilliant list, but I think Freo has a better list of match-winners. Plus the Lions’ gamestyle will suit Freo.”
Norm Smith Medal: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Michael Frederick (Fremantle)
KELLI UNDERWOOD (Fox Footy commentator)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 63 points — “Too much experience.”
Norm Smith Medal: Kylie! … and Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle)
BEN WATERWORTH (foxfooty.com.au)
Premiers: Fremantle by 18 points — “The most professional and measured team, both on and off the field, all season. Yes they’re not in the best form, but the hardest thing about winning a flag is getting to Grand Final day — and they’re there. Years of persistence under Justin Longmuir — and decades of patience from the fanbase — will be rewarded with a hard-fought Grand Final triumph.”
Norm Smith Medal: Shai Bolton (Fremantle)
First goalkicker: Patrick Voss (Fremantle)
GERARD WHATELEY (Fox Footy commentator/AFL 360)
Premiers: Brisbane Lions by 18 points — “The Lions will fulfill the dynasty, producing their best when it matters most.”
Norm Smith Medal: Zac (Brisbane Lions)
First goalkicker: Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions)
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